New to our TOTF stage: Research Studies of the Obvious

I'm adding a new category, borrowed directly from Prometheus6. (Since I suggested the category to him in the first place I don't expect to hear from his lawyer.) I didn't think I'd be using it over here but... it's a small world, n'est-ce pas?

Oh, and to be fair to the eminent scholars at the Naval Postgraduate School, let's suggest that they weren't really wondering whether there was any connection between dropout rates, unemployment, and gang violence. They were, however, applying different analysis tools to the issue. (Whether it makes sense to apply military modes of analysis to this environment is left to the reader.) They could have had faulty assumptions about crowded housing, though, hence their surprise about that variable.

NPS study of Salinas links dropout rate, unemployment to gang violence
Salinas employment another key factor, NPS study shows
By JULIA REYNOLDS
Herald Salinas Bureau
Updated: 12/22/2009 01:27:46 AM PST

In a report to be released next month, researchers at the Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey find that nearly 30 years of violence in Salinas has been intimately tied to education and employment levels, but not necessarily to crowded housing or police staffing levels.

"Although funding will be a problem for any program recommended to help lower violence, education pursuits should be given priority for funding," the report concludes.

One finding surprised the authors — that Salinas' crowded housing not only did not exacerbate violent crime, but was inexplicably tied to decreases.

Having volunteered in a local library homework program, I think there's a slight breakdown in logic as stated below:

But they ran into obstacles along the way. Prison recidivism numbers, for instance, were available only for the entire state. Also, there wasn't enough information about who actually uses services believed to steer kids away from gangs, such as libraries and after-school programs.

"If these programs are primarily patronized by children and adults who are not involved in violent crimes or gangs, then it is logical that these programs would not significantly impact the level of violent crime," the study said. [emphasis added]

One intent of many library & after-school programs is prevention. If people "who are not involved in violent crimes or gangs" participate in such programs, and they stay out of trouble, you can argue that it's the programs or you can argue that the same people, they or their parents being so inclined, would have found some other activity to stay out of trouble. You can also argue that the same people would contribute to the level of violent crime if there were no programs. There's no way to be sure, based on current methods. (Current methods are fairly random. Ideas, funding, and volunteers come and go with the wind.)

The column I would have written as my second post

Bob Herbert thinks before he writes, as I am reminded by his September 7, 2009 column, "It's Time to Get Help."

He sums up the American "nervous breakdown" and makes it look easy, mentioning health care, Van Jones, public schools, the twin wars, and black unemployment. None of this is going away just because August (the media's silly season) is over. (All emphasis mine in the below.)

Nearly 15 million Americans are unemployed, according to official statistics. The real numbers are far worse. The unemployment rate for black Americans is a back-breaking 15.1 percent.

Five million people have been unemployed for more than six months, and the consensus is that even when the recession ends, the employment landscape will remain dismal. A full recovery in employment will take years. With jobless recoveries becoming the norm, there is a real question as to whether the U.S. economy is capable of providing sufficient employment for all who want and need to work.

The other issue that hit home for me was our denial about the two wars in progress. I was reminded of this before I read Herbert's column, by the continuing "roll call" of the dead that we have now accepted as normal at the end of newscasts such as PBS's News Hour.

We’ve also been unable or unwilling to face the hard truths about the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and the terrible toll they are taking on our young fighting men and women. Most of us don’t want to know. Moreover, we’ve put the costs of these wars on a credit card, without so much as a second thought about what that does to our long-term budget deficits or how it undermines much-needed initiatives here at home